Perfectly unpredictable: Why forecasting produces useful rubbish - Professor Michael Mainelli - Gresham College Lectures

At the heart of commerce is the notion that perfect markets aren't predictable, yet great efforts are expended on proving this notion wrong. This contradiction perplexes us as cyberspace's automated and not-so-virtual economies mirror our world, companies deploy innovative incipient trend detection and the apparent power of forecasting tools seems immense. Does increasing predictive power mean that prices are less important signals of preference? Can we predict new markets? We shall look at the emerging power of interacting directly with people's desires and see that it enriches, rather than undermines, our view of economics - though it may impair our privacy. All our lectures are available for free download from the Gresham College website, in video, audio or text formats: http://www.gresham.ac.uk Gresham College professors and guest speakers have been giving free public lectures in central London since 1597. This tradition continues today and you can attend any of our lectures, or watch or listen to them on our website. Website: http://www.gresham.ac.uk Twitter: http://twitter.com/GreshamCollege Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Gresham-College/14011689941

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Gresham College exists for the sole purpose of disseminating knowledge to the public through free lectures. This four century old tradition continues today with three or more lectures a week being made available for free download from our website: